Iraq: Prewar opinions

The issue of the pending war with Iraq is not a simple one.

The case for the opposition to the war may be summarized as follows:

• The main motivation for the war is clearly control of oil reserves;
• The issue of weapons of mass destruction is a transparent figleaf for the real aims of the war. Blair and Bush know this and are lying to the public. 
• Iraq is a country ruined by a combination of an odious government and brutal sanctions, and does not pose any conceivable threat to populations in the US and UK, which could justify a war of self-defense. Even if the regime is hiding some weapons of mass destruction, rigorous monitoring readily ensures that it cannot use them. The Saddam regime knows that using a WMD against the USA would precipitate nuclear retaliation and utter destruction.  The whole issue is nonsense.
• There is no link between the Iraqi regime and extremist moslem terrorist groups. On the contrary, they are bitter enemies, and Saddam has been very effective in suppressing such movements within Iraq.
• A war against Iraq will stir up further hatred against the West by the muslim world, and further destabilize the region. It will greatly increase the risk of terrorist activities against the West, rather than the other way round.
• The West is guilty of gross inconsistency, and is, for example, taking no action about WMD's in the hands of its allies Israel and Pakistan, not to mention its own WMD's.

The only meaningful argument for the war against Iraq, in my view, is that replacement of the Hussein regime by almost anything else will have immediate positive effects for the majority of the people of Iraq. I also feel that the Western war planners are probably right and that the war will be won relatively quickly, although there will presumably be a civilian deathtoll of many thousands during the fight for Baghdad, and perhaps tens of thousands caused by the expected crisis for food and water during the months afterwards.

Nevertheless, I think one should recognize that the war against Iraq will have some very positive effects for most of the Iraqi people, who will be freed from a very brutal dictatorship. The future Iraqi regime will ensure that the oil reserves are placed in the hands of Western corporations, but at the same time, it will probably bring about a great change for the better in the quality of life of most of the population. What matters more .. the freedom and well-being of the Iraqi population, or the issue of who controls the oil? Would the mother of someone being tortured in Saddam's prisons care that the West is telling lies to justify its war?

Should one then support the war, despitethe fact that the stated justifications for it are lies and distortions?

In opposing the war because the real reason for it is control of oil reserves, is one actually betraying the Iraqi people, and opposing their chance of finally ridding themselves of an odious dictator: a sadist and a torturer?

I am sure that most of those opposing the war are also weighing up these difficult alternatives.

On balance, I do oppose the war, and I am taking part in demonstrations against it.

But in part, I will be demonstrating not so much against this war, as against the next one, and the one after that. And I hope that the (fictitious) mother of an Iraqi prisoner would understand that.

The USA, and the UK as its shameless attack poodle, is embarking on a true program of global domination, which is leading to disaster. Public protest in the West is essential to put some sort of brake on this program.

In Iraq, enforced "regime change" will be followed pretty surely by:

• An islamic revolt, which will be brutally suppressed by the new Western-friendly government, or which even may succeed;
• Further impoverishment of the population, as the infrastructure, already destroyed by the previous war, decays and is destroyed further. Mass starvation may be a consequence;
• An attempt by the West to take over in Syria and Iran as well, further exacerbating the situation;
• A tremendous recruitment boost for moslem extremists and embittered terrorists everywhere;
• Provocations by Israel, in the calculation that complete turmoil in the region will act as a cover for it to expel the remaining Arab population, and realize the dream of a racially pure "Jewish state", extending up to the Jordan (and maybe even beyond).

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